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Machinery industry: profit improvement of industrial enterprises, hot demand for construction machinery

the CICC machinery portfolio fell 2.92% in the past five trading days (replacing the computer host on November 2020//11/30), and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.89% in the same period. This week's portfolio is A-share Sany Heavy Industry, Hengli hydraulic, China testing and testing, Meiya optoelectronics, Longma sanitation, Jiejia Weichuang, superstar technology, Zoomlion, traffic control technology, tostar, Jiechang drive, Yingliu shares; H shares Zoomlion and Haitian International. The portfolio remained unchanged this week

the positive Xuan wave was used for the experiment of clockwise production; The industry chain resonates, and supply and demand improve. The signing of RCEP covid-19 is progressing smoothly, the global economic recovery is expected to strengthen, and the pro cyclical sector in the fourth quarter has received close attention. On the demand side, the domestic manufacturing boom continued to expand. In November, the manufacturing PMI was 52.1%, with a month on month increase of 0.7ppt, of which new orders/new export orders were 53.9%/51.5% respectively, with a month on month improvement of 1.1/0.5ppt. On the supply side, the industrial added value of manufacturing industry increased by 2.4% in the month and 7.5% year-on-year in October. We are optimistic about the inventory replenishment window in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and we suggest to focus on the targets with solid performance and reasonable valuation

construction machinery: the industry is booming, and the outlook for next year is optimistic. At the recent BMW exhibition, the OEMs and parts suppliers generally feedback that the production scheduling and orders are full, and they are optimistic about the demand from the end of the year to next year. In particular, during the BMW exhibition, the online order trading volume of Sany Heavy Industry was about 23.5 billion yuan, about 25% of the revenue in 2020, highlighting the prosperity of the industry. Looking ahead, we expect that the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales in 2021 will exceed 10%, and the year-on-year growth rate of truck crane and pump truck sales will exceed 20%. We continue to be optimistic about Sany Heavy Industry, zoomlion-a/h, the leader of the main engine factory, and Hengli hydraulic and Eddie precision, the component enterprises

industrial automation: in October, the profits of industrial enterprises continued to increase by double digits year-on-year. In October, the profit of China's industrial enterprises increased by 28.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 18.1ppt month on month. According to the calculation of CICC macro group, excluding short-term non operational factors, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profit in October was basically the same as that of the previous month (10.1%). From the perspective of representative products, the output of robot/metal cutting machine tools increased by 38.5% year-on-year/36.0% in October, continuing the trend of high-speed growth. We believe that the epidemic has greatly increased the demand for enterprise automation, and the development of new technologies, new products and new applications in the industry has accelerated. We expect that in 2021, the manufacturing fixed investment will continue the recovery trend since 2q20, and the import substitution of domestic brands will continue to deepen. Be optimistic about yizhimi, Haitian international-h, tostar, and Jinshang machine tool china-h, and pay attention to Ruike laser, Han's laser, central control technology (not covered), Guomao Co., Ltd. (the operating principle of search engine is not covered), and green harmonic (not covered)

special equipment: the installed capacity of power batteries in October increased by 44% year-on-year. We are optimistic about the goal of "carbon neutralization" to boost the demand for new energy equipment: 1) photovoltaic equipment: we reiterate our view that the capacity expansion of photovoltaic cells in the next year is higher than expected, and the driving force behind it is mainly the technological change of large silicon chips and the growth of photovoltaic demand side. We are mainly optimistic about Jiejia Weichuang, and we suggest paying attention to Maiwei (not covered) and Jingsheng electromechanical (not covered). 2) Lithium battery equipment: in October 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 69.7% year-on-year/104.5%, and the installed capacity of power batteries in China increased by 44% year-on-year. We predict that the domestic lithium battery industry is expected to continue the recovery trend in 2021. We are optimistic about the leading intelligence and suggest paying attention to hang Ke Technology (not covered)

optimistic about undervalued and pro cyclical stocks. 1) Forklift industry growth accelerated. The sales volume of 3q20 forklift truck increased by 54% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 18ppt month on month compared with 2q. The leading concentration increased. We are optimistic about Anhui Heli and pay attention to Hangcha group (not covered); 2) The global substitution of domestic brands of hand tools has accelerated. The profit of leading enterprises in the third quarter exceeded expectations, and they are optimistic about superstar technology; 3) The blades of the two machines are expected to enter the heavy-duty stage. The volume of new products of leading enterprises is expected to continue to boost profitability. Optimistic about Yingliu shares; 4) The demand for linearly driven lifting desks and electric medical beds exploded, and the stock prices of leading enterprises were at a phased bottom. Optimistic about jetcong drive

valuation and suggestions

we suggest paying attention to the three main investment lines of "demand recovery paves the way for our customers to minimize the total production cost and end use cost, domestic substitution, and carbon neutralization", from which we should select the manufacturing leaders with moat and long-term growth potential. Maintain the profit forecast, target price and rating of the companies covered

the demand of downstream industries is less than expected

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